Calculation model

Economic potential maps for "direct use" (i.e., the produced heat being used as such; no electricity is produced) constitute the most important result of ThermoGIS. The maps come from a techno-economic analysis. First, the technical feasibility of hot water production is calculated in the technical model using DoubletCalc1D, for each aquifer and per 1x1 km grid cell, using specified doublet parameters. Next, the economic potential is calculated using an economic model.

Alternative scenarios

Alternative scenarios have been calculated to determine the effects of well stimulation and the addition of a heat pump.

Uncertainty

It is assumed that the main uncertainty in the geothermal potential calculation is originating from uncertainty in the transmissivity (thickness x permeability). Using the uncertainty of thickness and permeability, a probability distribution curve of the transmissivity is constructed (thickness x permeability). From this distribution, the p90, p70,  p50, p30 and p10 transmissivity values are calculated. The calculations have been run for each of these p-values resulting in the uncertainty range for the output maps.