Economic model

The economic model calculates for each XY location in each aquifer the LCOE (levelized cost of energy, [€ct/kWh]) using a discounted cashflow model, given the subsurface conditions and various economic parameters that together define the cost of geothermal development and production. The assumption of the model is that the investment must be earned back in fifteen years, which is is the duration of the SDE++ scheme (Stimulation of Sustainable Energy). The CAPEX and OPEX used by ThermoGIS are calibrated to the costs published by PBL for the SDE++.

The CAPEX consists of well costs and other (installation) costs. The well costs are depth dependent. They are calculated as:

       Well CAPEX = 1.96 * ( 790000 + 555 x depth + 0.05 x depth² [€] )

Other cost included in the CAPEX are:

• constant 3.5 [M€]
• variable 882 [€/kW]

The OPEX depends on the power and the amount of produced energy (heat). The OPEX calculation currently involves:

• annual OPEX per unit power 81 [€/kW]
• annual OPEX per unit energy produced 0.062 [€ct/kWh]
• electricity for operations (ESP) 0.23 [€/kWh]

Next, the economic potential is determined by comparing the probability distribution of the calculated cost price (P10, P30 and P50) with a reference price (the 'base amount' or 'basisbedrag'), which varies per SDE++ class and is re-evaluated yearly. Currently ThermoGIS uses the four baseload classes defined in the SDE++ 2026:

For the maps shown in the Mapviewer, the following classes are defined:

1. Unknown: P10 cost price > reference price
2. Indication: P10 cost price < reference price
3. Moderate: P30 cost price < reference price
4. Good: P50 cost price < reference price

The value of the SDE++ reference price strongly determines what the economic overview map looks like. If the costs of other sources of energy increase, geothermal energy becomes relatively more attractive. An area which is unattractive given a certain economic scenario (low potential) may become more attractive when the economic parameters change.